A GOOD PREDICTOR FOR SUCCESS?

Came across an interesting article.  This is from Coach Tom Crean who is the former head coach of Marquette and the current head coach at Indiana.  

In mining the plethora of statistical data they had at Marquette, Coach Crean and his staff discovered a key stat line for them that they could safely use to predict success and failure.

5 Most Important Stats

The variables of:

1.  Field Goal Percentage - Field Goal % is your offensive efficiency juxtaposed to your defensive efficiency.

2.  Free Throws Made - FTs determines who is the aggressor and the aggressor almost always wins.

3.  Total Rebounds - Rebounding means more shot opportunities for you and less shot opportunities for your opponent.

4.  Personal Fouls - Fouls are usually an indication of poor defensive fundamentals.

5.  Halftime Lead - Lead at halftime can have a psychological effect.

They discriminated winning teams from losing teams in 477 conference games played during the 2005 season in the ACC, Southeastern, Big 12, Big 10, and Conference USA.

1. The team that recorded the higher field goal percentage was the winner in 75 percent of the games.

2.  The team that scored the most free throws was the winner in 70 percent of the games.

3.  The team that scored the most rebounds was the winner in 70 percent of the games.

4.  The team that committed the fewest personal fouls was the winner in 75 percent of the games. 

5.  The team that held the point advantage at halftime was the winner 74 percent of the time.

One more interesting stat from Coach Silver:  "I believe if you can score the first basket in three out of the four quarters you will win just about every game."

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