TO FOUL OR NOT TO FOUL, THAT IS THE QUESTION

According to an analysis provided by Synergy Sports Technology, the situation of whether to foul with a 3-point lead with less than 10 seconds on the clock, presented itself 165 times in the last two NBA seasons.  The conclusion?

Although coaches debate the strategy of fouling intentionally, most rarely do.  Teams deliberately fouled in only 19 of those instances. (One team tried to foul but was unable to because of ball movement.)  No team fouled with a second or less remaining.  Teams that deliberately fouled won 17 of the 19 games in regulation and lost once.  Teams won all 14 of the games in which they purposefully fouled with five seconds or less to play.  One game went to overtime, and the team that fouled when leading in regulation won.

So, when to foul?  With less than 15 seconds?  Less than 10?  Less than five?  Always, sometimes, never?  For coaches, it is a puzzle with no correct answer, only opportunities for regret."

(Thanks Jonathan Abrams and Howard Beck of The New York Times)